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Seminar
Department
of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management
The Chinese University
of Hong Kong
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Title
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Logistical feasibility and potential benefits of a population-wide > passive immunotherapy program during an influenza pandemic |
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Speaker
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Prof. Joe Wu |
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Assistant Professor
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Department of Community Medicine |
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Date
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Jan. 15th, 2010 (Friday)
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Time
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4:30 p.m. - 5:30 p.m.
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Venue
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Room 513
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William M.W. Mong Engineering Building
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(Engineering Building Complex Phase 2)
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CUHK
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Abstract:
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Treatment strategies for severe cases of pandemic influenza have focused on the use of antivirals and anti-inflammatory agents. In contrast, passive immunotherapy with convalescent blood products has received limited attention.
We consider the hypothesis that a population-wide passive immunotherapy program that collects plasma from a small percentage of recovered adults can harvest sufficient convalescent plasma to treat a substantial percentage of severe cases during a pandemic.
We use a mathematical model to estimate the demand and supply of passive immunotherapy during an epidemic of pandemic influenza in Hong Kong. We find that if at least 5% of 20- to 55-yo individuals recovered from symptomatic infection donate their plasma (donor percentage > 5%), more than 67% of severe cases can be offered convalescent plasma transfusion (treatment coverage > 67%) in a moderately severe epidemic (R0 < 1.4 with 0.5% of symptomatic cases becoming severe). A donor percentage of 5% is comparable to the current average blood donation rate of 38.1 donations per 1,000 population in developed countries. Increasing the donor percentage above 15% does not significantly boost the supply of convalescent plasma because supply is constrained by plasmapheresis capacity during most stages of the epidemic.
The demand-supply balance depends on the natural history and transmission dynamics of the disease via only the epidemic growth rate. Compared to many other major cities, Hong Kong has a relatively low plasmapheresis capacity. Therefore, the proposed passive immunotherapy program is a logistically feasible mitigation option for many developed countries. As such, passive immunotherapy deserves more consideration by clinical researchers regarding its safety and efficacy as a treatment for severe cases of pandemic influenza. |
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Biography:
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My research focuses on using mathematical modeling to understand the spread and control of infectious diseases including influenza and HPV.
My recent projects on pandemic influenza include devising pandemic mitigation strategies in the areas of drug-induced antiviral resistance, allocation of pre-pandemic vaccines, and household-based public health interventions. My recent projects on HPV include cost-effectiveness analysis of different combinations of cytology screening, HPV DNA screening, and HPV vaccination for the prevention of cervical cancer in Hong Kong. In addition to mathematical modeling, I am also conducting several field studies to track the age-specific attack rates of the H1N1 pandemic virus in Hong Kong in 2009.
I obtained a BS in chemical engineering from MIT in 1999 and a PhD in operations research from MIT in 2003. Before joining the Department of Community Medicine in 2006, I was an assistant professor in the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Tech from 2003 to 2005 and a research assistant in the Theoretical Biology and Biophysics group at the Los Alamos National Laboratory from 2002 to 2003.
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************************* ALL ARE WELCOME ************************
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